tv Nightly Business Report PBS August 25, 2015 7:00pm-7:31pm PDT
this is "nightly business report" with tyler mathisen and sue herera. >> the rally that wasn't. the bounceback evaporates. a 440-point gain disappears as investors sell intensely into the close. off the sidelines, china makes a big move designed to reassure "in style" tors worldwide, and it worked, at least for a little while. silver lining. as the market thrashes around, there's one important decision you may want to consider for your retirement money. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for tuesday, august 25th. good evening, everyone, and welcome. i'm sue herera. tyler mathisen is off this evening. the rally vanished. the buyers ran away, and it was a reversal to remember as sellers came out in force,
prompting a vicious selloff in the final minutes of trading. the morning started out much different. the opening bell rang and stocks took off. the dow jones industrial average soaring as much as 440 points, staying elevated for much of the day, thanks to a cut in interest rates by the chinese government. but by late this afternoon, investors appeared less convi e convinced and the selling intensified, losing about 500 points in the final hour of trading. by the close, the blue chip dow index finished lower to 15,666. the nasdaq was off 19, and the s&p 500 fell 25. the reversal in the dow and the s&p was the biggest to the downside since the heart of the financial crisis. bob has more on the rally that wasn't and why the bulls just couldn't hang on. >> we had a rally at the open, but stocks lost steam midday and gains were wiped out in the last hour, so what's the problem? there was a nice rally at the open, but the buyers were never
very enthusiastic. volume was much lighter than yesterday throughout the day, but it picked up as the market drooped in the last hour. there were rebounds in a small group of tech leaders like apple and netflix, so they, too, were well off of their highs, but commodity and industrial stocks that have had the stuffing knocked out of them in the last few days should have bounced, but they never did. copper maker, for example, down 50% in two months, a seven-year low, but still couldn't manage to do a rally. pathetic. dupont also been in free fall for three months and still continue rally either. big multinational companies that get a significant part of their earnings overseas like ge, ingersoll rand, tool works all ended down roughly 2%. what this tells me is that caution on global economic growth has not gone away, even with better than 10% decline in these big names in just a week's time. for "nightly business report,"
i'm at the new york stock exchange. >> well, the early enthusiasm was sparked by china. that country cut interest rates again and flooded its banking system with cheap money in an effort to stem the rout in stocks. it is the fifth time in nine months the world's second largest economy has slashed rates, but for the shanghai index, the damage was already done, falling another 7.5% overnight. susan lee in hong kong has the details. >> after the market crashed through 3,000 today, which the important level here, china finally pulled the trigger. they had to do something, send a signal of confidence to the markets because the fact they had stood still on the sidelines the last two trading selloffs had the markets forces dictate. but, no, they did cut interest rates tonight by 25 basis points, triple rs, reserves, banks have to hold aside by 50
basis points, which free up $101 billion immediately into the chinese financial system. well, that could help lubricate the markets. china usually waits for friday night ors weekends to cut interest rates or triple rs. the fact they went ahead on a week day, on this tuesday evening, means that they want an immediate market impact. and we did see encouraging signs. some markets actually rallied, despite the fact shanghai fell 7.5%. big gains in australia, taiwan, malaysia, indonesia, and more importantly, the fact hong kong ended up three-quarters of 1% higher, which is how foreign investors buy china. this is an encouraging sign maybe the buying has started once again. goldman sachs say they are still remaining overweight on china when it comes to evaluation basis. often we need to keep things in context, as well. yes, china is down 30% from the summer months, but the stock
market is still up 50% over the past year. some say, you know, let's keep things in perspective and, you know, not have tunnel vision. for "nightly business report," i'm susan lee in hong kong. >> mark joins us now to talk more about china and the rally that lost momentum on wall street. he's chief investor strategist. thank you for being here at the program. >> thanks, sue. >> you were correct in predicting of the start last week isn't over yet, but i wonder whether this is just a correction or whether you think the bull market is over. >> sue, we don't think the bull market's been derailed, even given the recent action we've had. in fact, corrections are going back to 1980, we've seen no less than 19 times, during which in the course of the year we had 10% or more and the annualized rate on a price only basis is 8.7%. so what we think is happening is
investors are basically given full evaluations on more demanding with regard to earnings growth expectations and right now those expectations are being disappointed by the prospects of weakening global growth. >> what about china? are you worried china is not able to really stem the rout in its stock market? do they have more room to be accommodative? what tools do they have left? >> sure. i think it definitely warrants some caution with regard to what's happening there. obviously, in terms of the size of their economy, but more important is really the blowback kou consequences, which collectively represents 52% of global gdp. we're not immune from feeling the impact. if china's situation continues to deteriorate and they have plenty of scope to continue to try to reflat economic activity. yes, they've cut rates five times, as you said in the opening remarks, but at 18% on
the reserve requirement rash sh ratio still among the highest in the world today when compared to other central bank policies around the world. we continue to see plenty of full scope for them to continue at a lower rate and/or a fiscal program, which i think they are reluctant to do, but all in an effort, if necessary, to at least arrest the slowdown in their economy. >> so i would assume from what you said you do not think what's happened in the last few days and weeks would lead to a global recession. >> we don't. that's not our base case, sue. we believe they will ultimately be able to discover some level of growth that maybe below the 7% we had for the second quarter, but well above what others are defining as a so-called hard landing and the u.s., euro, japan growing, we expect global growth to remain sturdy, if underwhelming. >> what's this do for the fed? the expectation has been either in september or by the end of the year we will see a move up in interest rates.
does the turmoil in the financial markets tie their hands? >> well, i mean, clearly you can see in the fed futures the signed probability to a liftoff in september and even in december have been taken down considerably. we're still of the view they are likely to do something before year end. i think this may, in fact, jeopardize september if only in the context of there's only about three weeks left of data accumulation that will allow for them to make a decision and it's been complicated by recent events in china and elsewhere around the world. that may push that off, but i think they are eager to get off because of the importance of the signal it means to the marketplace, which is the economy is sufficiently strong to warrant even so much as an eighth or quarter percent interest hike. >> mark, we'll leave it there, thank you so much for your insights. we appreciate it. and as we've been reporting, much of what's rattling the market is china and its steep market declines. we wanted to see how the people of beijing with money in that
market feel about the recent turmoil. >> there's nothing to worry about. used to stock market drama. it's more of no confidence in regards to the future of our capitalist market. >> translator: i can understand why based on the worries, but no one can say it's unreasonable. it's not right to think someone will be there to solve problems related to bare investment choices. >> translator: i have confidence in our country's outlook. >> the shanghai composite is down more than 40% from its peak in june. boeing still has confidence in china. the dow component raised its forecast for that country's aircraft demand over the next 20 years. the company expects china to buy more than 6,000 planes over the next two decades and that estimate is higher than previous projections. bhp's ceo also expressing faith in the world's second largest economy, despite reporting a nearly 90% drop in profits and cutting long-term
forecast for chinese steel demand, the ceo says china's broader economy is on track and growth will hold up in the second half of the year. >> we always said as a company that as china evolved, its growth would grow steadily. it's slightly slower growth, but at the same time, transition towards more of a consumption based economy is the right evolution that gives it based in the future they will be a major contributor to the world economy. >> today shares of bhp rose more than 2% to 32.92. the plunge in oil prices has been another big concern for the markets, but today the buyers came back. oil prices rose nearly 3% to settle at 39.31 a barrel, near a six and a half year low. later in the program, morgan brennan reports from texas to get a firsthand look at the ripple effects of this prolonged price downturn. well, all the volatility in this market has a lot of people
wondering what it means for their retirement savings. and if you've looked at your 401(k) recently, you may feel a little rattled, but we have a silver lining perhaps. sharon epperson is here to tell us what it is. so what's the strategy, the silver lining, if you will? >> the silver lining is for retirement investors who have money in a traditional ira or 401(k), you can convert that money to a roth ira and if it makes sense for you to do so, the reason you want to do it now is because you've likely seen a decline in the value of those accounts and you have to pay taxes on the tax deferred accounts when you convert them to a roth account. the beauty of a roth account, of course, is you're able to see that growth tax free and draw earnings tax free in retirement, but the key here is going to be to find money that's not from your retirement funds and then be able to have that money tax free when you need it for retirement. >> all right. so that certainly sounds like a
great silver lining. what if the market continues to fall and you lose more money in your roth account? >> so if that happens or you decide, hey, this is not right for me at this particular time and i don't want to have a roth account, you can actually undo it and you can turn it back into a traditional account and you have until october 15th of next year to do that for any conversion you do in 2015. so it's not you do it and have it forever. you do have a chance to change your mind. >> okay. do you have to do it all in one lump sum or a little at a time or a portion of it? >> so the beauty of the strategy, sue, you want tax diversification as well as asset allocation diversification, and so you can just take a portion of an ira or one ira if you have several of them and convert that money. you don't have to convert it all at one time, you don't have to convert it all ever. that's the thing to consider, this is a strategy to perhaps help you if you are already in a situation where you're likely going to be in a higher tax
bracket in retirement, that's the ideal person a roth is right for. this might be the way to get that money tax free in retirement while you have the tax deferred. >> kind of button this up, anything to watch up for, any caveats on this? >> you want to look at your tax situation. a lot of financial advisers say don't let the market drive what you do, look at what your tax burden is going to be likely and see if this roth account makes sense. talk to a professional. financial adviser and accountant. >> thanks, sharon, so much. always appreciate it. okay, still ahead, the housing market remains red hot, but is the recent market turmoil creating headwinds for one of the key pillars of our economy?
consumers are feeling better than they have in seven months. the conference board says its index jumped this month. that survey, however, was taken before the global selloff in the stock market. but analysts say that the outlook for consumption in the second half still remains strong. that improved labor market is also helping housing. sales of newly built homes rose more than 5% in july, providing more evidence of continued strength in the housing market. and home prices also rose in june. according to the latest s&pk shiller price report, but all of that recent market volatility may be creating headwinds for housing. >> sales of newly built homes moved higher in july. as did construction of new homes. builders say they are seeing more buyers now, but are not as bullish as the months ahead.
>> all during the summer from july to now, our traffic has been up and sales have been up, and the only thing i can attribute it to is all the press about the fed raising the discount rate in september. and the customer has to sign this. >> but midatlantic steven paul also attributes his company's success to lowering prices. >> we have gone down in size and in price to meet where the mortgage financing money is. >> now with trouble in china's economy making a u.s. rate hike less likely, the outlook for housing in the back half of this year is less bright. >> something we've consistently heard from the home builders is there's a lack of urgency among buyers in part because rates haven't moved at all. >> demand for existing homes is already starting to fall as prices stay stubbornly high and luxury home builder fell short of earnings expectations and its average home price soared to a new high. now after a major kick to confidence in financial markets
this week, some claim rates are taking a back seat to consumer caution. >> it's hard to decouple that psychological effect of the wealth effect from the stock market, even when you're not in it, you feel better about it, you have that wealth effect, feel you have more credit, more prospects, income and wealth appreciation over time. >> the thought just a week ago was the fed would raise rates this fall and that could have given housing demand a boost, pushing some buyers off the fence and convincing others that the u.s. economy is improving enough to warrant buying a home. now it seems like that scenario may be on hold. for "nightly business report," i'm diana olick in washington. our next guest says the u.s. housing market is in a mixed but fragile state. allen, good to see you, welcome back. >> thank you. >> why do you think it's fragile? >> well, what we're seeing is that while on average home prices are rising across the country, it's a very mixed bag and each of the strong markets we're seeing the number of
houses that are declining increasing and even more so in the weaker markets. so overall, i can't say that it's a strong market, i'd say it's mixed. >> so what do you think the impact will be of the last couple of weeks of market volatility, especially given what we saw in monday's trading session? >> sure, well, it's already a fragile market. it can't help at all. if anything, i think this can shift the mood such that we'll see prices actually tipping down in several major markets across the country. >> where is the strength in the market? which areas of the country or specific localities do you think could weather any potential financial storm better than others? >> well, certainly, you see tremendous strength in san francisco, in denver, to a degree in seattle. those are very strong markets, whereas new york and washington, d.c. in particular are rather weak. so if there's going to be a storm, i'd rather be on the west
coast. >> i think in many of us would. what do you think, you know, investors should watch for at this point? is it economic news, is it continued market volatility? is it the fed moving on rates? what would be the one thing that would keep you awake at night? >> well, if we see housing prices across the board start to weaken further, that can have a ripple effect through the economy because of the wealth effect. i think up until recently the reports have been essentially positive, which is something that holds the market up and holds the economy up, but if we see reports of declining prices in major markets and that continues, then the whole mood can change, and that can impact every aspect of the economy. >> now, the jury is still out about whether or not the fed is going to raise rates, especially given the turmoil we've seen, but what impact would a quarter point raise in rates have on the
market that you just outlined? >> well, in housing it ties directly into price, because interest rates and mortgage rates, obviously, are the cornerstone of the cost structure of owning a home. so given that the prices have gone up enough, such that we see weakness in many markets, i would say any increase in rates can have a surprisingly large leveraged impact on the housing market. >> even though the feds been telegraphing for some time that they do want to raise rates, that's not already in the housing market, you don't think? >> no, the housing market is not like the stock market. it's not very efficient. people make their move, essentially for personal reasons, not reasons having to do with investments. it's not like you can't get in and out of it, so i would say that kind of impact moves slowly into the market, in a very opposite way compared to the stock market where you see excess volatility. >> all right. we have to leave it there. thank you, allen. allen weiss with weiss residential research.
the budget deficit is expected to shrink, projected to fall to $246 billion, the lowest level of the obama presidency. that forecast is lower than the previous one in march, but the cbo also warned that congress needs to take action on the budget, and if that doesn't happen, the trend will reverse. best buy was today's bright spot, and that's where we begin tonight's market focus. the retailer was the best performer in the s&p 500, after reporting an increase in earnings and revenue that beat estimates and a jump in same-store sales. big screen tvs and phones continue to drive sales growth. shares rose 12.5% to 32.95. better sales of full price merchandise helped dsw post an increase in sales, but despite the rise, the results didn't meet estimates. the firm backed its full year earnings outlook, still, shares tumbled more than 11% to 27.35. also a disappointing quarter for
sanderson farms, missing estimates on the top and bottom lines. the stock ended a fraction lower at 67.84. dc regulators rejected the proposed combination of power companies, the deal had gotten the okay from surrounding states, but the nation's capital said the deal would not benefit rate payers. petco slid to 22.51. epsilon was off 7%. oshkosh won a multibillion dollar contract, and under that contract, which would be worth more than $30 billion, the firm will build new tactical vehicles for the u.s. marine corps and army. shares rose in initial after hours trading and during the regular session the stock was up 1.5% to 38.52. coming up, how a texas town at the center of the energy boom is handling the sharp and fast decline in oil prices.
here's a look at what to watch for tomorrow. a read on manufacturing with durable goods orders. more housing data with mortgage applications. and the market will be listening closely to hear from new york fed president bill dudley, and that is what to watch on wednesday. a former jpmorgan securities analyst and two of his friends have been arrested and charged in their involvement in an insider trading scheme that allegedly brought in more than $600,000 in illegal profits. the analysts got sensitive information while working at the firm and then tipped off his friends. with crude oil prices below $40 a barrel and 58% lower than
a year ago, the oil industry in texas is feeling the strain, and no place is that more apparent, perhaps, than in andrews, texas, the town that has played a major role in america's oil revival. morgan brennan is there. >> the prolonged price slump is taking its toll on oil towns like midland, texas. the metro area's employment rate is still extremely low, 3.3%, but higher than the 2.1% rate at the end of 2014. fewer workers in the energy sector, less money being spent in the local community. midland's mayor says the city, which revolves almost exclusively around oil, is reassessing its budget as tax revenue slows. >> for all of 2014 we saw double digit increases from the previous year from 2013, so, you know, that's unheard of. this year we're seeing ourselves get back into the single digits. >> reporter: morales, a local
restaurant owner himself, says business has softened. he's not experiencing lines out the door like last year. also home prices have fallen some 15% to 20%. residents of midland and other west texas towns have seen these boom and bust cycles before and everyone is taking steps to ride the downturn out. production has continued to increase, just over 2 million barrels per day, according to the eia, but the rate has dropped 55% since last september. by some estimates, an active rig can produce as many as 1,000 direct and indirect jobs. one is storing nearly 40 inactive ones. if crude prices remain low, even rigs like this one drilling new wells may need to come offline. that possibility privately held producer elevation resources is currently contemplating. >> it's not very exciting to put $7 million in the ground with the prospect of recovering that $7 million over 50 years, so
this rig was put back to work when oil was $60 a barrel back in june and with $40 a barrel, we have to reassess whether we can continue justify running this drilling rig to drill new wells. >> labor and equipment costs have come down significantly and some produces, which is cash flush from an asset sale last year, maintain there are still opportunities. >> we are closing projects now, we're actually putting rigs back up in the air. we're fracking as we're talking, we're completing wells, we're speaking, and we'll be drilling. it depends on when your company invested and how much you have invested. we're in good shape. >> but expansion has certainly not been the norm. there's a lag effect from prices falling, to production cutting back, and here in west texas, that takes about six months. elevation resources expects production to slow through the rest of the year with u.s. output likely down by 1 million barrels per day in early 2016. when prices begin to recover, more rigs will go up and the cycle will begin again.
for "nightly business report," i'm morgan brennan in andrews, texas. and finally tonight, a child in a museum walking past a million dollar masterpiece. a young taiwanese boy tripped at the museum this weekend and caught his fall with a 350-year-old painting valued at roughly $1.5 million. the oil canvas called "flowers" by an italian artist suffered a fist-sized hole. according to reports, the exhibition organizers say the boy was not to blame and the painting was insured. thank goodness for that. that's "nightly business report," i'm sue herera. we'll see you tomorrow night. we'll see you tomorrow night. thanks for joining us.
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